You got a part here then this part is missing," Barr said.įurther supply chain disruptions could come from China's continued zero-COVID policies that can shut down parts of the country, Barr said. Deere has faced similar challenges, she said. Touching on supply chains, Barr said the auto industry right now has as many as 45,000 vehicles waiting on specific parts before they can ship. "Right now, there are about two jobs for every person in the market looking for a job," Barr said. Kanlaya Barr, director of corporate economics at John Deere, said there are about 3 million fewer people in the U.S. ![]() "We're worried about keeping the business running when we can't keep people in." "We're trying to run a business that runs 24/7," she said. Monica Massey, executive vice president and chief innovation officer for Dairy Farmers of America (DFA), said the average number of job openings since the pandemic has gone from 500 to 1,500, so the country's largest dairy cooperative is "losing ground." Labor right now remains a driver of inflationary pressure and it is affecting several agricultural industries. "So, there are definitely risks," Kauffman said. These inflationary pressures could start to affect U.S. "I do think the higher interest rates will be a headwind, he said.Īlong with higher interest rates, the dollar remains strong. Some of that loan demand has started to pick back up, Kauffman said, and farmers are now starting to see higher interest rates. Real gross domestic product (GDP), which was 5.7% in 2021, could fall to 1% for 2023 and possibly land in negative growth in 2023.īanks also reported fewer farmers this year taking on new debt or renewing loans. Broad economic growth is coming down quickly from a strong 2021 driven by demand and investment. Still, there are growing macroeconomic headwinds. Now, loan delinquencies "are at all-time lows," Kauffman said. Land values are 25% to 30% higher than before the pandemic, Kauffman noted.īefore the pandemic, economists worried about an uptick in loan default rates. ![]() Fast forward - incomes are "incredibly high" despite more expensive input costs. Kauffman later added, "Many producers are in a good financial condition this year" with "very limited signs of financial stress."īefore the pandemic, agriculture was facing prolonged periods of economic stress and challenges with trade. "At a high level, economic conditions in agriculture are remarkably strong," Kauffman said. That's a high-level summary of some of the key points from speakers Monday at an Ag Outlook Forum hosted by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City and Agri-Pulse.ĭespite higher-priced inputs, interest rates and inflation, overall conditions for Midwest farmers right now are stronger than they were before the pandemic, said Nate Kauffman, an economist for the Omaha branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. farmers to increase production of crops such as wheat. However, macro-economic challenges remain while the war in Ukraine has further wrecked supply chains and put increasing expectations on U.S. farmers right now are in a good economic position. The panel discussion was part of an Ag Outlook Forum on Monday in Kansas City, Missouri. Food & Agriculture Organization, talks with Daniel Whitley, administrator for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service Christine Cochran, president and CEO of SNAC International and Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for Stone X Group Inc. Kip Tom, far left, former ambassador to the U.N.
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